It’s Saturday again.
Jack gathers with his best buddies to place a couple of bets. As Jack’s friends start picking the teams they think will win, Jack can’t help himelf.
They pick the heavy favourites every time. Although the favourites are highly likely to win, Jack doesn’t like the low profits. Especially when compared to the money they’re all risking.
Jack picks a match and tells his friends to play against the favourite. They completely disagree with him and label him as ‘crazy’ and ‘ignorant’.
They all fork out €100 each. In total, they were 5 friends, so that means they risked €500 to make €800 profit if they get all their selections right.
So they sat around watching the games, drinking beer and having fun. They started getting their selections right. On the other hand, Jack still had a nasty feeling only one bet would let them down.
As it turned out though, Jack was right. One result surprised the hell out of them and they all lost €100 each.
Surprises happen in every sport.
Surprises are necessary to create entertainment. Much of the revenue that is derived from sport is because sport entertains people.
Having a heavy favourite go down creates a lot of drama and controversy. In turn, these create more interest in the sport and.. you guessed it. More revenue.
This is essential to the thriving of any sport.
There’s another thing to consider still.
Betting companies make a TON of profit when the favourites lose.
You see, the vast majority of punters bet on the favourites to win. Just like Jack’s friends did.
Then again, who wants to say they bet against the favourite? Nobody.
Nobody wants to be criticised and look like an idiot for going against the grain.
Jack was still right though.
He wanted to play against the favourite because Jack liked to take a different approach.
Jack knows that the average punter loses money.
The average punter also always bets on the favourites to win.
Doing the same thing like the average person guarantees one thing only. Average results.
Which is exactly what the five friends eventually got. They lost their entire investment.
Whenever there’s a loser, there’s a winner though.
In this case, the big winners were the betting companies. Fuelled by the failure of one heavy favourite to win.
So does laying the favourite work?
The main appeal to lay the favourite is low risk, high reward.
If Ajax win we lose €22 but if they don’t win we make €100.
I decided to test lay the favourite out on a Saturday full of football.
However, I decided to place my stakes as follows:
- €25 Lay Ajax at odds of 1.22 (liability €5.50)
- €75 Lay Ajax at lower odds ONLY if they score first
This approach helps reduce our risk. It will pay off handsomely if Ajax go ahead and the match ends in a draw or Ajax lose.
I opted to test this out on 14 matches and these were the results.
| match | odd | stake | liability | result | P/L |
| Arsenal vs Huddersfield | 1.30 | 25.00 | 7.50 | 1—0 | -7.50 |
| Arsenal vs Huddersfield | 1.06 | 75.00 | 4.50 | 1—0 | -4.50 |
| Man Utd vs Fulham | 1.41 | 25.00 | 10.25 | 4—1 | -10.25 |
| Man Utd vs Fulham | 1.16 | 75.00 | 12.00 | 4—1 | -12.00 |
| Norwich vs Bolton | 1.42 | 25.00 | 10.50 | 3—2 | -10.50 |
| Norwich vs Bolton | 1.20 | 75.00 | 15.00 | 3—2 | -15.00 |
| Bayern vs Nurnberg | 1.11 | 25.00 | 2.75 | 3—0 | -2.75 |
| Bayern vs Nurnberg | 1.04 | 75.00 | 3.00 | 3—0 | -3.00 |
| Napoli vs Frosinone | 1.21 | 25.00 | 5.25 | 4—0 | -5.25 |
| Napoli vs Frosinone | 1.07 | 75.00 | 5.25 | 4—0 | -5.25 |
| Celtic vs Kilmarnock | 1.28 | 25.00 | 7.00 | 5—1 | -7.00 |
| Celtic vs Kilmarnock | 1.12 | 75.00 | 9.00 | 5—1 | -9.00 |
| Atletico vs Alaves | 1.44 | 25.00 | 11.00 | 3—0 | -11.00 |
| Atletico vs Alaves | 1.13 | 75.00 | 9.75 | 3—0 | -9.75 |
| Admira vs Salzburg | 1.20 | 25.00 | 5.00 | 2—2 | 24.50 |
| Admira vs Salzburg | 1.05 | 75.00 | 3.75 | 2—2 | 73.50 |
| Genk vs Kortrijk | 1.34 | 25.00 | 8.50 | 1—1 | 24.50 |
| Genk vs Kortrijk | 1.14 | 75.00 | 10.50 | 1—1 | 73.50 |
| Hajduk Split vs Istra | 1.26 | 25.00 | 6.50 | 3—1 | -6.50 |
| Hajduk Split vs Istra | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3—1 | 0.00 |
| S. Prague vs Mlada | 1.24 | 25.00 | 6.00 | 3—2 | -6.00 |
| S. Prague vs Mlada | 1.09 | 75.00 | 6.75 | 3—2 | -6.75 |
| AEK vs Lamia | 1.37 | 25.00 | 9.25 | 2—0 | -9.25 |
| AEK vs Lamia | 1.12 | 75.00 | 9.00 | 2—0 | -9.00 |
| Zwolle vs Ajax | 1.23 | 25.00 | 5.75 | 1—4 | -5.75 |
| Zwolle vs Ajax | 1.09 | 75.00 | 6.75 | 1—4 | -6.75 |
| Welfare vs Druids | 1.16 | 25.00 | 4.00 | 1—3 | -4.00 |
| Welfare vs Druids | 1.06 | 75.00 | 4.50 | 1—3 | -4.50 |
| ROI | 12.44% | – | 199.00 | – | 24.75 |
Two favourites ended up not winning their games: Salzburg and Genk. These two games gave us a massive profit which made up for all the other minor losses incurred.
The final profit is €24.75 with a return on investment of 12.44%.
Another technique I could have used would be laying the favourite only after they scored the first goal of the game.
In this case, the results would have been the following.
| match | odd | stake | liability | result | P/L |
| Arsenal vs Huddersfield | 1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1—0 | 0.00 |
| Arsenal vs Huddersfield | 1.06 | 100.00 | 6.00 | 1—0 | -6.00 |
| Man Utd vs Fulham | 1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4—1 | 0.00 |
| Man Utd vs Fulham | 1.16 | 100.00 | 16.00 | 4—1 | -16.00 |
| Norwich vs Bolton | 1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3—2 | 0.00 |
| Norwich vs Bolton | 1.20 | 100.00 | 20.00 | 3—2 | -20.00 |
| Bayern vs Nurnberg | 1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3—0 | 0.00 |
| Bayern vs Nurnberg | 1.04 | 100.00 | 4.00 | 3—0 | -4.00 |
| Napoli vs Frosinone | 1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4—0 | 0.00 |
| Napoli vs Frosinone | 1.07 | 100.00 | 7.00 | 4—0 | -7.00 |
| Celtic vs Kilmarnock | 1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5—1 | 0.00 |
| Celtic vs Kilmarnock | 1.12 | 100.00 | 12.00 | 5—1 | -12.00 |
| Atletico Madrid vs Alaves | 1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3—0 | 0.00 |
| Atletico Madrid vs Alaves | 1.13 | 100.00 | 13.00 | 3—0 | -13.00 |
| Admira vs Salzburg | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2—2 | 0.00 |
| Admira vs Salzburg | 1.05 | 100.00 | 5.00 | 2—2 | 98.00 |
| Genk vs Kortrijk | 1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1—1 | 0.00 |
| Genk vs Kortrijk | 1.14 | 100.00 | 14.00 | 1—1 | 98.00 |
| Hajduk Split vs Istra | 1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3—1 | 0.00 |
| Hajduk Split vs Istra | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3—1 | 0.00 |
| Sparta Prague vs Mlada | 1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3—2 | 0.00 |
| Sparta Prague vs Mlada | 1.09 | 100.00 | 9.00 | 3—2 | -9.00 |
| AEK vs Lamia | 1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2—0 | 0.00 |
| AEK vs Lamia | 1.12 | 100.00 | 12.00 | 2—0 | -12.00 |
| Zwolle vs Ajax | 1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1—4 | 0.00 |
| Zwolle vs Ajax | 1.09 | 100.00 | 9.00 | 1—4 | -9.00 |
| Welfare vs Druids | 1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1—3 | 0.00 |
| Welfare vs Druids | 1.06 | 100.00 | 6.00 | 1—3 | -6.00 |
| ROI | 61.65% | – | 133.00 | – | 82.00 |
The result is a whopping 61.65% return. Now tell me, where else you can get that rate of return?
Any banks or investments paying that type of return?
Not really..
So perhaps Jack did have a point after all when he suggested betting against the favourite.
Worried that all favourites win and you lose €133?
Place a €5 acca bet for all favourites to win and you dramatically reduce your risk of that happening.
Sure, you will still carry some risk. Particularly, if one favourite fails to win. You’d lose the acca bet and make a loss on your lay bets.
The biggest threat would be having the favourites go for a straight loss. This would leave our lay bets at lower odds unmatched and causes the acca bet to lose too.
Yet the above results would still have produced a really solid profit and ROI.
I decided to test things out with an acca bet included as well. The results using an acca bet were the following.
| match | odd | stake | liability | result | P/L |
| Huesca vs Real Madrid | 1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0—1 | 0.00 |
| Huesca vs Real Madrid | 1.06 | 100.00 | 6.00 | 0—1 | -6.00 |
| Gent vs Eupen | 1.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2—0 | 0.00 |
| Gent vs Eupen | 1.20 | 100.00 | 20.00 | 2—0 | -20.00 |
| Vereya vs CSKA Sofia | 1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0—1 | 0.00 |
| Vereya vs CSKA Sofia | 1.05 | 100.00 | 5.00 | 0—1 | -5.00 |
| Ludogorets vs Slavia | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2—0 | 0.00 |
| Ludogorets vs Slavia | 1.09 | 100.00 | 9.00 | 2—0 | -9.00 |
| Zapresic vs D. Zagreb | 1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0—2 | 0.00 |
| Zapresic vs D. Zagreb | 1.15 | 100.00 | 15.00 | 0—2 | -15.00 |
| Hibernians vs Senglea | 1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2—0 | 0.00 |
| Hibernians vs Senglea | 1.05 | 100.00 | 5.00 | 2—0 | -5.00 |
| Emmen vs Feyenoord | 1.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1—4 | 0.00 |
| Emmen vs Feyenoord | 1.22 | 100.00 | 22.00 | 1—4 | -22.00 |
| Sporting vs Aves | 1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4—1 | 0.00 |
| Sporting vs Aves | 1.07 | 100.00 | 7.00 | 4—1 | -7.00 |
| Radnicki Nis vs Spartak | 1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3—0 | 0.00 |
| Radnicki Nis vs Spartak | 1.06 | 100.00 | 6.00 | 3—0 | -6.00 |
| -100.00% | – | 95.00 | – | -95.00 |
For the acca bet I tested both a normal acca and Betfair’s acca edge. The latter gives you a refund on your stake if 1 leg lets your down. I placed a stake of €40.
| Acca type | odds | profit |
| Normal acca | 5.71 | 188.31 |
| Acca edge | 3.86 | 114.40 |
The result? All the favourites won in this case and all our lay the favourite bets got matched.
The liabilities of €95 were lost. A normal acca bet would have produced a net profit of €93.31 and the acca edge would have given us a €19.40 profit.
Quite good for an afternoon’s work.
The favourites do go down just as we saw here. Laying the favourite can be a profitable strategy for sure.
I will be testing this further and reporting new results on Propel & Win.
So far though, the results are definitely looking up.
Your man,
Jeff
****** Disclaimer: The author disclaims any liability, loss or risk incurred as a consequence of the use or misuse, either directly or indirectly, of any information or advice presented in this article. This article has been published on the understanding that no guarantee of earnings or promise of future profitability was given either verbally or in writing. Any form of betting is speculative and you should never bet with money that you cannot afford to lose. Sensible betting involves the creation of a “betting bank” that is kept separate from other monies. ******